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Despite lower‐troposphere wind flow being a major control of rainfall in equatorial Africa, no studies have systematically compared winds from multiple reanalyses nor have attempted to validate the wind directions. Therefore, the objectives of this study are to assess differences in wind directions among multiple reanalysis products and compare reanalysis winds with wind measurements made at weather stations. The study region is western Uganda, part of the transition region between western equatorial Africa (WEA) and eastern equatorial Africa (EEA). Four‐times daily (i.e., 0Z, 6Z, 12Z and 18Z) 10‐m and 850‐hPa winds from 1980 to 2021 are obtained for ECMWF Reanalysis v5 (ERA5), Japan Meteorological Agency 55‐year Reanalysis (JRA55), Modern‐Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications Version 2 (MERRA2), NCEP‐NCAR Reanalysis 1 (R1) and NCEP/DOE Reanalysis II (R2). Wind measurements at 10 m and 850 hPa are obtained for six weather stations and two weather stations, respectively. Agreements between pairs of products and between measurements and reanalysis estimates are determined. In addition, differences between reanalyses and measurements with respect to wind vectors are calculated. Results show that the majority of reanalyses have western Uganda within the prevailing easterly flow over EEA and east of the prevailing westerly flow over WEA. Ten‐meter wind measurements also show easterly flow being prevalent throughout western Uganda. R1 is unique among the products due to a relatively large number of westerly days. However, much of the westerly flow is likely artificial, based on station data. MERRA2 has large easterly biases. JRA55 is much more accurate than the other products at reproducing the intra‐annual frequencies of wind directions. JRA55 and ERA5 are the least biased products based on the magnitudes of difference vectors. Therefore, it is recommended that JRA55 and ERA5 continue to be used in examinations of winds in western Uganda.

 

Abstract People’s observations of climate change and its impacts, mediated by cultures and capacities, shape adaptive responses. Adaptation is critical in regions of rainfed smallholder agriculture where changing rainfall patterns have disproportionate impacts on livelihoods, yet scientific climate data to inform responses are often sparse. Despite calls for better integration of local knowledge into adaptation frameworks, there is a lack of empirical evidence linking both smallholder climate observations and scientific data to on-farm outcomes. We combine smallholder observations of past seasonal rainfall timing with satellite-based rainfall estimates in Uganda to explore whether farmers’ ability to track climate patterns is associated with higher crop yields. We show that high-fidelity tracking, or alignment of farmer recall with recent rainfall patterns, predicts higher yields in the present year, suggesting that farmers may translate their cumulative record of environmental knowledge into productive on-farm decisions, such as crop selection and timing of planting. However, tracking of less-recent rainfall (i.e., 1–2 decades in the past) does not predict higher yields in the present, while climate data indicate significant trends over this period toward warmer and wetter seasons. Our findings demonstrate the value of smallholder knowledge systems in filling information gaps in climate science while suggesting ways to improve adaptive capacity to climate change. 

Abstract Substantial research on the teleconnections between rainfall and sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) has been conducted across equatorial Africa as a whole, but currently no focused examination exists for western Uganda, a rainfall transition zone between eastern equatorial Africa (EEA) and central equatorial Africa (CEA). This study examines correlations between satellite-based rainfall totals in western Uganda and SSTs – and associated indices – across the tropics over 1983-2019. It is found that rainfall throughout western Uganda is teleconnected to SSTs in all tropical oceans, but much more strongly to SSTs in the Indian and Pacific Oceans than the Atlantic Ocean. Increased Indian Ocean SSTs during boreal winter, spring, and autumn and a pattern similar to a positive Indian Ocean Dipole during boreal summer are associated with increased rainfall in western Uganda. The most spatially complex teleconnections in western Uganda occur during September-December, with northwestern Uganda being similar to EEA during this period and southwestern Uganda being similar to CEA. During boreal autumn and winter, northwestern Uganda has increased rainfall associated with SST patterns resembling a positive Indian Ocean Dipole or El Niño. Southwestern Uganda does not have those teleconnections; in fact, increased rainfall there tends to be more associated with La Niña-like SST patterns. Tropical Atlantic Ocean SSTs also appear to influence rainfall in southwestern Uganda in boreal winter as well as in boreal summer. Overall, western Uganda is a heterogeneous region with respect to rainfall-SST teleconnections; therefore, southwestern Uganda and northwestern Uganda require separate analyses and forecasts, especially during boreal autumn and winter. 

To address claims of human exceptionalism, we determine where humans fit within the greater mammalian distribution of reproductive inequality. We show that humans exhibit lower reproductive skew (i.e., inequality in the number of surviving offspring) among males and smaller sex differences in reproductive skew than most other mammals, while nevertheless falling within the mammalian range. Additionally, female reproductive skew is higher in polygynous human populations than in polygynous nonhumans mammals on average. This patterning of skew can be attributed in part to the prevalence of monogamy in humans compared to the predominance of polygyny in nonhuman mammals, to the limited degree of polygyny in the human societies that practice it, and to the importance of unequally held rival resources to women’s fitness. The muted reproductive inequality observed in humans appears to be linked to several unusual characteristics of our species—including high levels of cooperation among males, high dependence on unequally held rival resources, complementarities between maternal and paternal investment, as well as social and legal institutions that enforce monogamous norms.